Recent publications

Growth and Productivity
In the past years, the external trade and the financial sector have been the central forces of economic growth. The gradually expanding global economic crisis will on the one hand lead to a significant decrease in the foreign trade. On the other hand, the financial sector will have to go through a difficult process of consolidation. Thus Switzerland’s two central pillars of growth will also collapse. It will now depend on how Switzerland will emerge from the crisis given this starting position.    Switzerland owes much of its acquired wealth to its high economic openness and the resulting strength of its export sector. In a world, however, which is growing more and more protective due to the crisis, Switzerland’s economy is faced with great challenges.

In addition to these challenges, there still are structural problems in the domestic market. The current crisis, however, will further reduce public disposition even to cautious steps of liberalisation (electricity market, post office network). Generally, a growing discomfort with market and competition based solutions will have to be expected.

Furthermore, the power of veto of single players (such as cantons, communities, sectors, unions) is nowhere as strong as in Switzerland. The fragmentation of the executive additionally weakens Switzerland’s ability to react to the crisis.

The current economic crisis by no means discredits liberal, market-based and competition-oriented solutions. Apart from the fact that convincing alternatives are nowhere to be seen, it has to be noted that in many sectors, it was not too much but rather too little competition, market and regulative rigor that caused the crisis. Avenir Suisse will thus continue to advocate liberal, market-based and competition-oriented principles. 


Efficiency of institutions
Switzerland’s spatial reality has changed fundamentally in the past decades. The description of today’s settlement structures is more and more defying the original categories of “town” and “countryside”. Economic and social action is less and less restricted by geographical boundaries. In fact, there is a collage of urban, suburban and rural elements, together forming a national network of agglomerations. Despite decades of costly efforts to decentralise, economic revenue, the flow of commuters and the economy are concentrated on the agglomeration axes extending from Basel to Lugano and from Geneva to St. Gallen. The institutional demands of these structures are an increasing challenge to the traditional small-scale federalist decision-making processes. 

In different publications and on conferences, Avenir Suisse has pointed to this new reality and its consequences for economic and regional politics but also for security politics.  

	Earlier topics
Ageing society A decline in the number of children and increased longevity lead to an ageing and diminishing society in Switzerland as in all developed countries. The number of over 65-year olds amounts to 25 percent with relation to the number of the economically active population and will double in 30 years. This development is historically unique and cannot be influenced over the medium term. It has various effects on finance, growth and on the welfare state at large. With regard to this development, Avenir Suisse has calculated alternative scenarios differing from the official demographic scenarios of the Federal Statistical Office. As a consequence, Avenir Suisse makes various suggestions for sustainable population and old-age provisions politics including topics such as old-age work, migration/naturalisation as well as a critical debate about the second-pillar system.    Education and innovation Globalisation has also led to competition between educational systems. This requires dynamic politics in matters of education and science. The performance of innovation and the educational system has to be evaluated continuously. Education is Switzerland’s most important resource. Around 5.5% of the GDP (ca. 21 billion francs) flow into the public education system.  The highly praised quality of Swiss schools was put into perspective for the first time in 2001 by the PISA studies (Program for International student Assessment, OECD). The growing number of university rankings does not give high marks to the tertiary education sector either. Yet a high educational level is a premise for progress and innovation. With its own studies, Avenir Suisse has analysed criteria for teachers to become successful. Further, Avenir Suisse has developed an integral proposition for a repositioning in the international environment. For future innovation politics, Avenir Suisse has presented a new concept for an innovation market with which to combine high quality Swiss fundamental research and the needs of companies. In order to improve the performance of public schools, Avenir Suisse suggests establishing communal day schools.